Why Russia is Reviving Its Conventional Military Power

The revival of Russian military power poses certain challenges to NATO and to the West. However, the exact nature of these challenges is not straightforward. This article discusses why Russia is reviving its conventional military power and argues these developments are not limited to the intention of preparing for offensive action. NATO’s and the West’s policy responses to recent changes in Russian defense policy need to be based on a realistic and nuanced understanding of Russian motivations because ill-considered responses could have serious unintended consequences. A fter almost 20 years of allowing Russia’s conventional armed forces to fall into disrepair, an extensive program of modernization announced in 2008 has yielded impressive results and started a process of Russian military revival.1 Following the military intervention in Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, and Russia’s first expeditionary operation outside of the former Soviet region in Syria, recent developments in Russian defense policy have led to increasing concerns about a militarily resurgent Russia and the potential implications of this for its neighbors, NATO, and the West. In the words of the new NATO SACEUR, US General Curtis Scaparotti, who was sworn in in May 2016, “a resurgent Russia [is] striving to project itself as a world power...To address these challenges, we must continue to maintain and enhance our levels of readiness and our agility in the spirit of being able to fight tonight if deterrence fails.”2 According to Gustav Gressel, writing for the European Council of Foreign Relations, “Europe’s military advantage over Russia” is now “undermined.” To counter “Russia’s new military boldness and adventurism” and its military vision that is “centered on the Eurasian landmass,” Europe is now in need of finding an urgent response to Acknowledgements: The research for this article was conducted as part of a project funded by the Finnish Prime Minister’s Office, government’s analysis, assessments, and research activities fund. The opinions expressed in the article are those of the author. For the duration of the project the author was based at the University of Helsinki’s Aleksanteri Institute as a senior researcher. She would like to thank everybody at the institute for their support. 1 Dmitri Trenin, “The Revival of the Russian Military: How Moscow Reloaded,” Foreign Affairs (95) no. 3 (May/June 2016), 23-29. 2 Matthew Bodner, “Changing of the Guard: NATO Brings in Army General to Deter Russia,” The Moscow Times, May 12, 2016, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/569142.html (accessed May 26, 2016). russiAn MilitAry Power Why Russia is Reviving Its Conventional